Zingography # 14 : Some Data Science Loaded Cognitive Case Studies [WIP]

I also call it “The Road of Data Science to Design Principles

Yes its a Tough Art to Balance + Manage!

Firstly let me try & explain my thought process around it and then next I will share some examples.

The Process am trying to indicate : How can we use customer behavioural data analysis to create a better design experience for them.
This ain’t that easy as it sounds, its basically about converting all the bits + bytes into Cognitive Decision making process. So basically Left Brain neurons making sense for Right Brain to be able to navigate 🙂

So let me try & make it structured :

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I don’t think its an easy task – (Ask Me :)) but these are specific tasks which a PM is expected to fulfill. Let me quote some of my own experiences :

Banking : Here, some of key initial metrics to be noted
– The no. of mobile logins are as many as the no. of customers + no. of of visits (which I thought was unique) & drop off is very less (<5%)
– The no. of logins/visits would not translate into no. of transactions
– The no. of logins/visits was following a seasonal trend cycles with no impact/growth of offers/new communication

The key deductions were :
– The set of customers are loyal & set (they are not majorly growing nor de-growing)
– The regular offers

FinTech :

Ecommerce :

Some Key Startups : 
– Photography & Travel Club :
– Jewellery Designing :
– Sports Content Website :
– Seller Platform :
– VR Future Tech Implementation :
– Organic Fashion/ Sustainable Clothing :
– UX Agency (Health + Education Tech) :

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European Startups Success!

Have been closely following the Europe Tech Startup Scene closely for last 2 years & here are my few realisations.
The continent’s tech Hub scene can be easily divided into below regions :
– UK Tech Hub Scene
– Northern Europe Tech Hub Scene (Scandinivian, Netherlands, Estonia)
– Western Europe Tech Hub Scene (Berlin, Barcelona, Lisbon, Paris)
– Central + Eastern Europe Scenes

europa_accelerators

Now coming to the list of companies – the ones which have succeeded by either crossing $1Bn revenue mark or being sold to another Business Giant can be listed below :

  • Spotify!
  • Booking
  • Nokia (Till it lasted)
  • Revolut/Transferwise/ N26
  • FarFetch
  • Zalando
  • Klarna
  • BlaBla Car
  • Avito.Ru
  • Meero
  • Delivery Hero/HelloFresh/Deliveroo/JustEat
  • Badoo
  • Wix
  • Skype

atomico unicorns

Some Key Observations are :

  • British continues to rule but interesting to see how Brexit changes the scene with UK Products will have limited audience in European markets & vis-a-vis
  • US,China are still BIG as compared to European Markets however very few US, Chinese products find acceptance in Europe Markets – WhatsApp, Apple, Google, Facebook, Microsoft are few I know
  • Few Europe Companies Go Global in terms of office setups & market acquisition

But in my understanding, European Startups are unique in terms of offering & are Long Term for following reasons :

  • IPO Target : They target IPO first rather than being a Unicorn along or raising multiple fundings. This shows a mature Approach – Spotify is one unique example of the same
  • Focus on specific customer offering more than marketing, scaling – I have interacted, worked with multiple Startups & their insistence on researching, experimenting, testing, Data Science Approach is VERY VERY HIGH (to the point of nagging at times :))
  • Data approach, experimentation/Testing approach : Another Mature Approach is that they insist on Data for making all Key Decisions
  • Not in a hurry to scale
  • Skill Focussed & Way Upward from Down
  • Doing Simple Thing But Very well!
  • Options to move around different countries in a small space
  • Social Safety Net & Wealth Equality (Social Democratic Setup)
  • Egalitarism

I do think that where they differ is that Americans tend to be a lot better at sales and marketing from day one. They don’t even have a product and they are shouting about how good they are and really selling the product before it is even built. But Europeans will wait three years until the product is completely finished, or at least up to their standards, and say, hey, we exist. It is really bad from both sides. As a reporter, you are kind of fed up with people shouting before it is ready, because it is nonsense. But I really wish the European entrepreneurs would be a little be a little bit more proactive and shouting about their publicity and making noise and selling. They are very bad at selling.” —- Robin Wauters, Founder Tech.eu

risks chart

Ref :

https://www.businessinsider.com/most-valuable-startups-europe-2011-12?IR=T#mind-candy-pivoted-from-a-failed-idea-into-a-social-network-for-kids-thats-worth-more-than-200-million-2

How European and U.S. startups go global: A look at the numbers

https://www.ft.com/content/bf7b3dd4-127d-11e5-8cd7-00144feabdc0

https://www.inc.com/inc5000-europe/special-report.html

27 European startups that have reached unicorn status

Zingography # 13 : Cognitive Behaviour + Data Science ; AB Test Validation Tool

I have been really fascinated by the capability of AB Testing Tool to make Designing Decisions using Data Science.
If you combine Machine Learning & Statistical Science to the same – then Previous Combo becomes more Potent & Effective.

AB Testing can be a tough Art to Master, even the most experienced ones go wrong all the time with their hypothesis & metrics selection.
Hence accepting your own & your colleagues varying opinions + navigating through the same to get most effective Long Term Impacts is they Key for Success.
But one should be honest to the science of AB Testing & how it is designed even if results are not favourable – it’s like a daily routine that should be practiced as it is.

What am here to discuss is the New Art of combining “Cognitive Design Behaviour with Data Science Algorithms” and especially use Spotify’s Playlist Recommendation for the same.

My Current Research Analysis says that Spotify’s Recommendation Engine is one of the best in this space!

Yeah better than Apple‘s iTunes, Alibaba‘s + Amazon’s Return HomePage Pages Recommendations or Similar SKU suggestions, Google‘s Search Engine or Google News Feed, Netflix‘s Similar Shows Features. What makes Spotify shine here is how it has used the Music Preferences Attributes along with Human Emotion Capture Calculations ! They use a unique score assigned to each song preferences & suggest them if your attributes matches the range of moods/preferences! Also their Engine is constantly improving & updating based on bigger cluster preferences. What I appreciate is that they are not using Other Platforms similar data but trusting self engines to contribute. Secondly, it empowers the customers to play with the algorithm to change preferences.

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As per further search, AB Testing plays a very important role in making below decisions:

  • UI Decisions : Button Shape, Contrast colour, Position, Text, Headline, Icons (+ vs Heart), Widget Decisions, Hamburger Menu
  • Page Format – list view vs card view, the information architecture, number of information shared in a single page view
  • Metrics selection & Order Prioritisation for Making recommendations of Playlist
  • Deciding the Weightage of different Key Factors for engine’s Logic – which is the Highlight of Spotify’s Success!

  • Localising + Personalising the Site : https://www.thinkwithgoogle.com/intl/en-gb/success-stories/how-spotify-increased-premium-subscriptions-using-google-optimize-360/
  • Optimising the Keywords Search : When users in Germany searched for “audiobook” and clicked on one of Spotify’s ads, they were either brought to the custom page or to the original page.
  • Creating Culture of Experimentation & Real Time AB Testing Result platform which is most crucial. (They were earlier using Google’s Optimizely for a long time)

Did I ever share the perfect method of conducting an AB Test Experiment :

  1. Define the Problem – To increase conversion, to increase revenue
  2. Come up with a series of ideas to work around the same basis historical data, recent findings, industry insights – This should be a collective + collaborative process wherein everyone should be heard & allowed to explain their logic. Also while prospecting, one has to think about the impact % on success metrics with what confidence, duration, sample size.  Do not hesitate to use AB Testing calculator for same.
  3. Finally one has to prioritise these ideas basis their impact, time + effort + cost and decide on the order of these tests
  4. While designing the test – decide the Hypothesis that by doing so & so the impact shall increase. What is important to note is that while choosing these tests – they have to be such that can be proven only by data results. Also for tests with drastically different options – it can be a short duration test while for closer options, sample size hence duration has to be longer.
  5. So Hypothesis, success metric, options selection are very crucial aspects of the test
  6. Keep observing the performance of key metrics (Primary, Secondary at least) during the tests – no need to take sudden decisions basis this but observe the pattern.
  7. Let the test complete & observe the results – if results are drastically different, you have a clear winner. If test results are negative (do not worry), try with a different hypothesis & options. If test results are closer then decide whether to increase sample size or to discard the test or to go ahead with partial winner (last one not recommended but call can be taken depending on experience/circumstance/influence of other tests).
  8. Keep doing the same for different cases

As Post 2008 Generation, My Learnings

I have recently been thinking & discussing with my friends about “What should be our Generation’s & Particularly of People with our Background’s Differentiation Offered to this World?”
What is it that will make our Generation stand tall amindst its previous (Baby Boomers & Early Millennials IT, Manufacture) & future generations (Internet & SaaS).

Am realising for a standard working professional with a Graduation Degree & Maybe Masters with few years of experience, there are following area gaps which are left to be filled by individual her/himself :

  1. Identification of Subjects which truly stimulate your Motivation cells (which you will do unconditionally)
  2. To enhance your thought process beyond your subject of expertise – reading, podcasts, documentaries, travel, side projects?
  3. To create your own differentiation – by connecting the dots! Also no one can teach you above – one has to find a process on their own to find their Juice/Mantra/Fibre.

And then I came across below article

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/rajat-gupta-is-unrepentant-for-his-crimes/articleshow/68536851.cms

This article was more of a trigger but my research includes lots of documentaries (Around Brexit, Subprime Crisis, Corporate Functions, World History), Podcasts, Books, Travel,  Time spent with Family along with Self Talk & Analysis, meeting & networking with some right people resulted in below List. Am certain that am quite close to the answer :

  1. INTEGRITY – DEFINED BY PERSONAL & WORK ETHICS is most critical as the value associated with this will only increase in times since majority around you (as one can observe) will take the easy path always while compromising on multiple things
  2. NETWORK CIRCLE – AUTHENTICATED & ALIGNED TO YOUR PERSONAL VALUES : I personally attach alot of importance to this since it is not possible for a Monk also to remain completely sane without some basic human interactions
  3. MULTI SKILL HAT – of doing different roles required to understand everyone’s viewpoints along with different sized organizations and in different geographies. Have seen such people to be easy to mingle & quick at Problem Identification
  4. THROUGH & THROUGH INNOVATION – Creativity cannot be proven by your social media posts or by your dressing or just by speaking some cool jingoisms, you should/must have proven records of what you believe you stand for & Yes a Proven record of having done innovation in some capacity will give a certain edge
  5. DETAILING & PRIORTIZATION – Breaking a situation Down, first in Mind and then on Paper. And the ability of Breaking Down is an adaptive one where you need to master different models & implement depending on the problem statement.
  6. FUTURE TECH ADAPTATION – This is where being an engineer becomes useful coz one understands technology & its implementations
  7. PEOPLE SKILLS + LEADERSHIP – Outgoing, Easy to get along but difficult to get perturbed are very useful daily skills. Also what kind of Leader are you going to turn up to be from being an Inclusive Leader to Strategic to Transformational to Facilitative to Democratic to Autocratic to Cross Cultural to Laissez Faire (My Least Favorite) to Transactional to Coaching to Charismatic to Visionary
  8. WORLDLY AWARE IN MOST TOPICS – Music, Netflix, Travel, Politics, History, Sports, Culture Insights, Food & Wine – Strategy Ideas & References come from here a lot. Late Discovery but it has the Power of increasing your mindspace & mindframe to a greater extent than few other.
  9. YOUR OWN MOJO SKILL (PREFERABLY FROM HUMANITIES OR SCIENCE SUBJECT TOPICS FROM SCHOOL – Something You always knew you were Good at) : I have observed that every person while doing their job (numbers, coding) & following their passion, there is always some art/science from which they daily seek solace which becomes like their secret power. In many people’s cases I have seen them to be cars, gardening, cooking, etc.
  10. TO HOLD SELF AGAINST TRENDS – This I will give alot of value as well since the trends are most dangerous for those who don’t believe in themselves so much! I have personally felt the strongest of all urges by Old worlds to pull me into complacency and New Worlds to pull me into Anxiety Competition Led Atmosphere. Its important for one to find their own pace & atmosphere suited to what they believe & stand for so as to master their ownselves first & then others around them.

Loads of things like being Hard Working, Articulate, Charming which were considered to be High Value skills for Pre 80s generation will be considered basic must haves for Post 2000s.

Plus a lot of extra-ordinary skills of 80s generation will be considered Good to Have!

The-Evolution-of-a-Leader.jpg

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Zingography 11 : Cognitive Abilities in PM

Cognitive Science involves linguistics, psychology, artificial intelligence, philosophy, neuroscience and anthropology. My learning & experience says that if we are able to include Cognitive Science into our Product Management Process – they results shall be much more refined, Long term & closest to objective.

Cognitive Science has to include multiple stakeholders views from :

  • Customers perspective
  • Team management perspective
  • Leadership & changing Business Landscape perspective

Am quite sure of developing successful models around the same for different PM Cycle stages & this is my effort for the same.

Below are the key PM Stages & recommended Models for the same :

  1. Business Strategy Roadmap based on Market Research & Secondary Research Data Insights — Model 1 (Leadership Management + Market Analysis – BCG Matrix, PLC, 7S Framework, Value Chain)
  2. Need Gap Analysis Identification — Model 2 (STP + 5Porters Forces)
  3. Recommendation Solutions & Prioritisation of Features (New & Enhancements) – Model 3 (Phase Gate Model/ Spider Mapping Technique ; High & Low Impact)
  4. User Persona Identification – Model 4 (Demography & Behaviour (Tech & Products) Mapping)
  5. Roadmapping + Project Management – Model 5 (Gantt Chart)
  6. BRD/ PRD – Model 6 (Process Note, Unified Modelling Language)
  7. MVP Approach – Model 7 (User – Action – Story ; Pain – Gain)
  8. User Journeys/Scenarios mapping – Model 8 (Decision Tree)
  9. Designing-> with quick dipsticks & quick changes around suggestions Model 9 : Neurological Emotional Branding + Decision of buying

Screenshot 2019-03-07 at 8.25.22 PM

10. Development/Middleware – Library & its adaptations for agile expansion
11. UAT all scenarios/Hackathon (Model 10) /CUG – AB Testing Hypothesis linked to Data          Mining & Big Data Analysis…. Statistics & its variance test analysis! Frequentist vs              Bayesian ..
12. Success Metrics formulation (Model 11) Data visualisation /K Nearest neighbours/              Regression/Clustering ; Random Forests; Time series/sequence; text mining!
13. Launch & Optimise
14. Team Management Model

Disclaimer : My suggestions are based on my experience, research, interactions with other companies & my own theories/understandings on this space. Am quite confident of their inter-relationship with each other.

Some Books I recommend in this regard are :

  • Design of everyday Life
  • Sapiens
  • Art of Deduction
  • Tao Te Ching by Lao Tzu
  • Cognitive Science
  • Psychology of Persuasion
  • Infographica

Emotional Quotient

EQ is a very rare quality in a human being & even a rarer quality in a Successful Leader.

I used to study & try to understand in college, but it’s a different ball game when you appear in work arena & then see how work demands/pressures are to be met with the People/Cultural aspects.

Of course one learns to manage the work demands & skill demands depending on one’s capacity. It’s always the people skill management that is the trickiest to master as it is very dynamic, variable to unpredictability.

I struggled with the same as well – majorly because there were a lot of aspects about myself that I had not explored or made myself aware e.g. how I respond to pressure, to a New team person, to a vendor, etc. Since I had not given them any thoughts consciously, mastering them was a far away task.

I think – till the age of 28, and 5 years of work experience – the effort was more or less optimise/adjust for survival and observe around. But I think it was during my 6th year of work experience, in 2015 when I decided to do a proper analysis & self haul of :

  1. Who i am?

  2. What do i want in life?

  3. What do I want in work life?

  4. What I need to do achieve 2 & 3?

This gave a lot of perspective & a lot of peace to myself as I then felt am moving in life with some sort of direction (not 100% clear but still some LIGHT). This made a lot of people interactions & my senior leadership alignments easier as well. I won’t say that it has been absolutely smooth sailing since then but still the choppy waters have seemed manageable & the belief to be able to make it the shore has grown stronger.

global-economics-effect-emotional-4-228-g001

Of course, the presence of my last manager & a few other leaders with higher EQ has made me realise even stronger & clearer on what I want in life & am thankful for that. I cannot stress more on the importance on such People focussed Leaders who groom young people & motivate them to achieve what they want in Life. They become life coaches & mentors, role models for them in moments of crisis.

Last week, one of the senior women leaders decided to move out of the company & it made me feel bad beyond what I imagined. Of course in the short span that I got to know her – she came across as an extremely understanding, warm, affectionate and easy to approach (Again rare leadership qualities). The extent to which she understood your position & could advise you accordingly amazed me – High High EQ. The amount of comfort she offered to a non – direct team member speaks volumes on her ability to connect. The fact that it wells up my eyes every time I think about the fact that she could not continue due to family commitments, speaks volumes about her ability to connect & leave a positive mark.
I do wish to be always there in her life & vice versa plus also hope for many more such people in life moving forward to make it worth it!

What is up with the WRONG Celebrity Culture?

I do think that most of the people on earth do not know how to spend their time!

I do not claim that I do that myself but I definitely do not think that only Idol/Individual Worship helps anyone from personal experience! When I say Idol worship, it includes a known human face worship as well!

It’s good to have ideals – personal as well as public related, but to put a face to it or give a human that personification of those age old + modern evolved idols should be TREATED CRIMINAL. I repeat, HeroWorship in any form and shape should be a CRIMINAL OFFENCE.

What happens is that in doing so, one is empowering a person (made of bones, skin with emotions, thoughts, needs, desires like us all) to be the KING/QUEEN or GOD – You are by default telling him/her/it to rule them, control them & you have to follow them unquestioned coz you chose them unquestioned.

Let me also specify that in world terms – my problem lies with Global Leaders chosen by default system/process and in National terms with Male Cricketers, Movie Stars (not even good actors just celebrities), family owned industrialists, politicians, beaurecrats & their kids.

They treat public, democracy, media, judiciary, legislative bodies, Law & order as pawns to their wills & fancies. Perhaps it is a very age old problem running but with today’s times of more confident youth who are selfish (lets admit it) and don’t give a damn about anyone/anything plus more scrutiny thanks to social media & outspoken-ness of public – I do wish this UNWARRANTED POWER OF SO CALLED POWERFUL PEOPLE to go away!

I want more and more people & new systems to stand up to such powerful individuals who bring their individual interests first & public welfare/ social welfare last!

shallowness

So what’s the solution :

  • More vigilant, flexible & faster system biased towards social welfare, public opinions backed by data & figures of qualified sources to take centre – stage (yes yes, its always subjective but there are models still). To have other institutions follow these system & not rally around eyeballs.
  • Educated & qualified public (who understand that this celebrity culture is doomed to put society to fail) to Speak Up & Take Ownership. It has always happened in history in all forms & there is no reason why people who attract others based on their flesh & faces should be respected & not on simple basic skills. Parents & Schools shall play the most important role.
  • Media Content control mechanism – there is so much need for Media to be told that public are no fools & they can see through their intentions of putting up a story so better make those intentions clean & RIGHT! This should be done at all levels & channels – we need more powerful regulated bodies linked to Public systems (indirectly to Democratic powers)

Honestly, am not so sure if I will see the above moving in my lifetime but will be good to see some sort of beginning made towards it.

Absolutism vs Relativism

A lot of Youngsters must have explored this topic especially after reading “The FountainHead” – Your High School & Graduation Years are the times when you explore such ideals, socially accepted norms to understand them better so which path to follow.

I recall doing that myself starting at the age of 15 years & somewhere found the answer in being self dependent, financially independent, emotionally self reliable, socially responsible, well-read + travelled as my answers amongst other thoughts. Reason being that only in being free of other’s influence (most of it is financially rooted) can one choose the best for self & others. And hence all my efforts have been to deem myself resourceful enough to have my own perspectives.

I won’t deny that it has been difficult remembering these thoughts all the time despite knowing them intrinsically. Being emotionally (beliefs + trust) defeated at work & personal level has been the most difficult to manage/ navigate through.

Coming from a secure small loving family & industrial colony setup in a small city, I had challenges dealing with people’s perceptions & people’s intentions/ expectations plus I didn’t know how to maintain the balance between that & my own objectives/ beliefs.
Somewhere the belief that letting things ‘be’ in uncontrollable situations is the best thing to do. But how it can impact you & what changes it can make in you – I was always sceptical of that. I was not sure if I am emotionally that deep or aware to be able to manage the wrath being thrown at me.

Somewhere, making myself travel & explore different regions, people, cultures, relationships, situations was one of the ways I felt I can help myself understand Life & hence self better – am glad I did that.

This tells me loud and clear to KEEP THE CORE ABSOLUTE! KEEP THE CORE CLEAN for you to refer to it anytime & feel Good & Confident.
It’s the Layers that you have to develop & manage – the various layers of protection/ disguise which can be discarded/ transformed/ thickened/ softened/ added as per situations. They don’t mean much if Your Core is true & honest.

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Most of the world, times, people, situations (Especially social, financial, transactional) can be dealt with the Layers Interaction so let it be judged/ commented. They Have to be Thickened to not let unnecessary things penetrate even emotions, empathy! THICK-SKINNED IS THE MOTTO!
There are only a few which bare your soul for the world – music, love for few chosen ones, values/beliefs, travel + clicking and that true connection with the SuperPower.
Your Work, Personality, Perspective, Interactions are a byproduct of the above two which showcases them.

So nothing to worry or be sentimental about – this world’s system has been long created before you were born & there are lots affecting it all the time beside your own space. Best you can do is to play your role fulfilling while trying to make your mark via your Core + Layers Cohabited System! 🙂 Amen.

My thoughts on HIMYM ending..!

I remember watching it on 1st April and really liking it.. I loved the twists, turns, suspense, confusion but at the end making sure two people who truly loved each other in the deepest & most genuine, warm, friendliest, caring way got together..

Let me confess that I stopped watching HIMYM mid 5th season, reason being – one I didn’t have access to episodes, two it discontinued to surprise me with Robin shifting from Ted to Barney and Ted being confused about who is the one for him, Lily and Marshal being yawn (sorry!) and creators just not telling us who the mother was..

But the end was Perfectly beautiful – not only it showed how well the Mother amalgamated in everybody’s life, but they showed how truly Ted loved and how well he deserved! Many feel Ted & Robin getting together at the end was an ‘ouch’ moment but for me that was the jigsaw piece that completed the entire picture.

You see Ted truly loved Robin in the best way a person can love another – selflessly, without expectations, wanting to do everything possible to make her happy without her knowing it, ready to sacrifice everything and anything but most importantly in the most passionate recurring fashion!
I am for some reason biggest fan/believer of recurring love/passion – I have always believed that something that your love is not something you hold on to but let it fly and let it come back to you.. I don’t believe that things/people you love always stick with you physically – they don’t cheat on you but they happen to move away or you happen to move away from them..but they come back in more than one obvious ways..

I like this kinda love for some reason..this is more believable & acceptable than the clinging & holding on types in today’s world10155324_226095264264622_989681847_n

Now, that I am trying to get over my obsession with HIMYM over past few days or weeks – I decide to take my learnings :
1. I will always aim to be like Robin appearance wise.. I love such girls 🙂
2. I will always believe in being a true lover without much expectations..
3. Will always believe in my friends and be in touch with them..
4. Above all Love life and be optimistic about it always..

I wanna thank creators and the actors, crew for sticking to the original plan – however late it was.. it was totally meant to be like this and it was totally worth it..

There have been all kinda views I have heard, positive, negative, mixed.. and trust they all loved HIMYM but I think there have been some very brilliant opinions shared ..

I personally am a believer and have high faith in destiny and good Karma.. and I feel

  • Ted was not failed by it – he got the best of everything – kids, happy marriage for a while and then girl of his dreams that he always went going back to..
  • Robin got her job, travel ,fame, adventure plus she found the best person to end up with..
  • Marshal n Lily – they always got the perfect things 🙂
  • And as for Barney – I truly feel he was never the settling kinds just didn’t fit in the scheme of family/worldly stable things – but it seemed nice he got an anchor in his daughter to have something really special in his life.. a wife/other girl could never hold him like that..

Am glad we got the ending it deserved and that also in a twisted, elongated tale – what I would have wanted more is bit more of Cristin (she was brilliant), a little more supportive evidences for the shift from mother to Robin and from Barney to Ted..
I think things got a little mixed up in between coz they didn’t know how many seasons will they take to wrap up! But as long as the heart and soul of the show was at right place – you can let the mind take its own course 🙂

Again thank you Robin,Ted,Barney,Marshal n Lily..and of course the MotherZLccfN5mOsw.. and creators, director, crew..
Very interesting storyline, amazing settings but the best part that it had a heart and a soul.. Thank you!

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